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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-21 10:25 am 
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It is kinda bad when $400 for a tier one modern deck is considered a good deal...

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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-21 1:54 pm 

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sir squab wrote:
It is kinda bad when $400 for a tier one modern deck is considered a good deal...
Why? Decks where people can win money are going to cost. There have been times Standard decks cost that

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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-21 6:52 pm 

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sir squab wrote:
It is kinda bad when $400 for a tier one modern deck is considered a good deal...


How much does a playset of Blood Moons cost anyway?

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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-22 12:01 am 
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MRHblue wrote:
sir squab wrote:
It is kinda bad when $400 for a tier one modern deck is considered a good deal...
Why? Decks where people can win money are going to cost. There have been times Standard decks cost that

Because at some point, you need to take a step back and look at your value-for-money.

Friday nights, I sit at my diningroom table and play Magic. I've probably spent thousands on Magic (without regret).

But, there are other good games out there. Not necessarily card games, but, like, board games. You know what's weird? All my board games combined are worth less than the combined value of Force of Wills I have (randomly, I have 7, but that's still like $700-800). My Intet the Dreamer deck is worth more than all of them.

Arguably, I could have an amazing home theater system instead of half my collection (I do have a singleton set of dual lands).

Whatever, the point I'm trying to make is the utility-to-dollar value I get out of magic is just not there. It's not *that* good of a game (blasphemy, I know).

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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-22 12:15 am 
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MRHblue wrote:
sir squab wrote:
It is kinda bad when $400 for a tier one modern deck is considered a good deal...
Why? Decks where people can win money are going to cost. There have been times Standard decks cost that

Most of the T1 Standard decks right now are in the $400-700 range, which is completely insane for a quickly-rotating format if you ask me.


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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-22 12:23 am 

Joined: 2013-Aug-20 4:37 am
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tenminutegod wrote:
Most of the T1 Standard decks right now are in the $400-700 range, which is completely insane for a quickly-rotating format if you ask me.

A couple hundred of that for the fetches aren't going to lose much value on rotation. It is still pretty bonkers that you can drop $250 on a playset of Jace, but that is core set mythics for you.


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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-22 12:48 am 

Joined: 2011-Feb-15 7:09 am
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Sinis wrote:
MRHblue wrote:
sir squab wrote:
It is kinda bad when $400 for a tier one modern deck is considered a good deal...
Why? Decks where people can win money are going to cost. There have been times Standard decks cost that

Because at some point, you need to take a step back and look at your value-for-money.

Friday nights, I sit at my diningroom table and play Magic. I've probably spent thousands on Magic (without regret).

But, there are other good games out there. Not necessarily card games, but, like, board games. You know what's weird? All my board games combined are worth less than the combined value of Force of Wills I have (randomly, I have 7, but that's still like $700-800). My Intet the Dreamer deck is worth more than all of them.

Arguably, I could have an amazing home theater system instead of half my collection (I do have a singleton set of dual lands).

Whatever, the point I'm trying to make is the utility-to-dollar value I get out of magic is just not there. It's not *that* good of a game (blasphemy, I know).

Just to chip in, I think most people playing modern have no prospect of making anything out of their expense, and when they do it's probably product rather than money.

As for value for money, that's relative to your situation. If you think you're going to play your $1000 dollar deck every week for a year then you've spent $20 per event which doesn't sound so bad compared to other entertainments. If you just intend to use it once then that's not a good choice IMHO, and that's the problem with collecting, most of your collection will be unused at any given time and not returning any value to you. But if you sell your surplus you lose out when you find you need it again. Catch 22.


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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-22 1:07 am 

Joined: 2011-Sep-30 6:08 am
Age: Elder Dragon
OldVig wrote:
But if you sell your surplus you lose out when you find you need it again. Catch 22.
That is not a Catch 22. It's called an opportunity cost, and it's something that's fairly well understood in economics.

Sinis wrote:
All my board games combined are worth less than the combined value of Force of Wills I have
That's because 95% of used board games are worth basically nothing. The depreciation on your Magic collection (assuming the bulk of value is from buying singles, not accumulation of pack chaff) is going to be far, far lower. In fact, I think if you were to relatively naively spend $1k on a stack of $30 Magic cards vs a stack of $30 board games, you would expect the Magic cards to be worth more than $1k in three years and the board games to be worth maybe $300.

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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-22 3:16 am 
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crokaycete wrote:
OldVig wrote:
But if you sell your surplus you lose out when you find you need it again. Catch 22.
That is not a Catch 22. It's called an opportunity cost, and it's something that's fairly well understood in economics.

Unless I'm missing something huge, isn't opportunity cost the idea behind "time equals money"? Aka the idea that whenever you do something you aren't doing something else so you want to maximize the value of whatever you're doing? If so, then how is it related to this situation?

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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-22 6:39 am 

Joined: 2011-Sep-30 6:08 am
Age: Elder Dragon
If you liquidate your collection, you pay the opportunity costs associated with needing to acquire again the specific cards you used to own.

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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-22 7:19 am 

Joined: 2014-Sep-13 7:28 am
Age: Elder Dragon
I do think that WOTC should print more cards. MMA/MM2 didn't need to have Tarm at Mythic for example - the mythic slot should go to something that you should rarely draft because it wrecks.

But i also think it's ok cards cost as much as they do. They go up with demand, the demand is there. If people didn't want to spend $400 on Modern, they do not have to (and many don't, my local scenes have usually never included any seriously tier-1 decks and i think i've always been the only person with Tarms for example).

I don't mind having a ton of money wrapped in up Magic because a lot of is reserved and such.

OldVig wrote:
If you just intend to use it once then that's not a good choice IMHO, and that's the problem with collecting, most of your collection will be unused at any given time and not returning any value to you.

This seriously depends on what you own, and i disagree with it passionately. I have tons of reserved list stuff that exploded or went up a lot recently. I thought i paid ridiculously for Tabernacle, Workshop, Candelabra, Chains, Abyss, but over the last year... New stuff like modern staples/potentials - i bought a whole bunch of Urborgs for example, a couple weeks ago, and they doubled. 'Older' new stuff like Liliana/Veil for $30 and Snapcasters for $20 when they were around. Even older than that, my set of FS Tarmogoyfs for like $350. I got a huge slew of Grim Monoliths for $16, and a set of foils for $500 (which included a German and a Portuguese) and now nonfoils are about $30. Minamo's for $5.

There is tons in magic that returns value to you. Now, i wouldn't keep 400 copies of anything that's a sure-fire reprint or going to tank on rotation...

But i also get it if you just mean enjoyment value.


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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-22 8:56 am 

Joined: 2012-Apr-11 7:17 am
Age: Elder Dragon
Sinis wrote:
Whatever, the point I'm trying to make is the utility-to-dollar value I get out of magic is just not there. It's not *that* good of a game (blasphemy, I know).
My mistake, I misunderstood. Here we agree.


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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-22 9:39 am 
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crokaycete wrote:
Sinis wrote:
All my board games combined are worth less than the combined value of Force of Wills I have
That's because 95% of used board games are worth basically nothing. The depreciation on your Magic collection (assuming the bulk of value is from buying singles, not accumulation of pack chaff) is going to be far, far lower. In fact, I think if you were to relatively naively spend $1k on a stack of $30 Magic cards vs a stack of $30 board games, you would expect the Magic cards to be worth more than $1k in three years and the board games to be worth maybe $300.

I have to agree with this. Magic isn't just a game, it's also a collectible. Wizards has done a fairly good job balancing the two, and my argument for this stemming from how they've managed to keep going for over twenty years. Board games don't really hold monetary value like collectibles do (until their bubble bursts), but collectibles don't stick around as long as board games. Magic somehow has managed both longevity and monetary value.

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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-22 12:27 pm 
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Uktabi_Kong wrote:
crokaycete wrote:
OldVig wrote:
But if you sell your surplus you lose out when you find you need it again. Catch 22.
That is not a Catch 22. It's called an opportunity cost, and it's something that's fairly well understood in economics.

Unless I'm missing something huge, isn't opportunity cost the idea behind "time equals money"? Aka the idea that whenever you do something you aren't doing something else so you want to maximize the value of whatever you're doing? If so, then how is it related to this situation?


Basic explanation of opportunity cost:
You can exactly one of things A through Z.
The cost of doing thing A is you can't do things B through Z.
The cost of doing thing B is you can't do thing A and things C through Z.

Etc. The cost of preforming an action is all the things you can't do because you preformed that action.

Or a more real world example. It's Friday night. You can go the movies, go out for dinner or play FNM. You are only able to do one of those because reasons.

The cost of the movies is you miss out on going out for dinner and FNM. The cost of going out for dinner is you miss out on the movies and FNM. The cost of FNM is you miss out on going to the movies and going out for dinner.

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 Post subject: Re: "Price Correction"
AgePosted: 2016-Jan-22 8:36 pm 
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Sinis wrote:
I think that's a separate point. It's more of a two-step process. The first thing they want to establish is that there exists a profiteering culture with conflict-of-interest instances in online stores like SCG.


This may be fair. I don't feel like I know enough about the inner workings of SCG to have a counterpoint. I will say that even though SCG's got more influence than most other singles dealers, I'm not sure they have the kind of leverage or market share that you think.

Recently, I've started to suspect that profiteering may lead to a large number of cards being underpriced (this probably leads into a different discussion though).

Sinis wrote:
The second part of the argument is more subtle; it's an argument that the reprint policies that Wizards has creates an environment that allows this kind of market manipulation to flourish. Why can SCG charge boats of money for Stoneforge Mystic? Because there aren't many in circulation.

If this *isn't* the case, why isn't Wizards just reprinting like mad?


This is where I come back to the Konami example. There's a few major differences in the way Konami handles Yugioh than Wizards handles Magic...

1. Konami does a single, fixed print run of a set (Wizards tends to keep sets in print for months)
2. Yugioh "standard" doesn't rotate; instead, Konami refreshes the format by banning/unbanning cards every 3 months (usually keeping a banned list with scores of cards on it)
3. There's no reserve list

So 1.) means that new staple cards spike in price very quickly, and there's this strange paradox where bad sets tend to make for more expensive cards (since there's only 1 print run, if distributors and retailers don't preorder product, Konami doesn't print it, then since there's a small amount of product available, it drives up singles prices). Then, once the best cards for a format are identified, Konami either 2.) bans them, or reprints them in reprint-only sets until the price bottoms out. Either way, 2.) and 3.) combine to make sure your Yugioh collection is basically worthless after about 18 months.

So while Konami's print/reprint strategy is probably profitable, it creates a lot of customer dissatisfaction, so there's a high player churn rate, and a lot of LGSs decide not to stock deep on Yugioh (it's not worth the customer retention issues and inventory management time).

I'm pretty sure this is something WIzards watches, and I suspect it's at least one factor in them not wanting to get on the reprint-everything-until-the-price-tanks wagon.

Sinis wrote:
Maybe you're okay with that, but, I really would like to enjoy modern for less than $400. Does that seem reasonable to you? And, if I suddenly were to decide I didn't care about the authenticity of my cards, why wouldn't I just pay a quarter of that to a counterfeiter?


In recent years I'm starting to struggle with what counts as "reasonable." I have a lot of days where it's frustrating to watch singles prices go up and up and up before I can get the cards I want.

Then again, a PS4 and one game to play on it will also run you about $400.

And either Magic or Playstation seem cheap compared to an outdoor or sporting hobby, like golf or tennis or fishing or hunting... I'm pretty sure you can't get a decent shotgun new for less than $800 nowadays.

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