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MTG Commander/Elder Dragon Highlander • View topic - Theoretical Probability as Win Condition

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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-16 10:01 am 
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Joined: 2009-Aug-20 7:49 pm
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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-16 11:09 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-16 2:05 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-16 3:10 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-16 11:12 pm 
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Last edited by spacemonaut on 2019-Jan-17 4:59 am, edited 5 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-17 1:41 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-17 9:43 am 
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"The President's job - and if someone sufficiently vain and stupid is picked he won't realize this - is not to wield power, but to draw attention away from it." -- Douglas Adams, predicting the future.


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-17 9:48 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-17 10:23 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-17 10:41 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-18 3:02 am 
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Maybe I'm not as well versed in probability as I think I am, but I'm still missing how the example in OP's description can happen without a quadruple effect or something of that nature. Yes, if you shuffle the deck an infinite amount of times you'll eventually get a shuffle that has cards A, B, and C on the top. However, in order for the player to be able to pull that off, they would have to have some way of knowing which specific shuffle did it.

I also seem to remember that at least once in the past it's been ruled that performing an action multiple times in a way that has no clear and tangible effect on the game is indistinguishable from performing it once. For example, forcing your opponent to shuffle their library several times in a row with no change to the library, known information, or board state is treated as doing it once, as shuffling is a randomizing effect.

Sid's Chance Encounter scenario isn't comparable for a couple reasons. The first is that unlike the infinite shuffling mechanic, the result of the infinite coin toss is not dependent on the last one. You are theoretically guaranteed to sculpt the deck exactly the way you want it to be if you shuffle infinitely, but it's completely irrelevant unless you have some way to ensure that the final shuffle has that result. Compare it to the infinite coin toss, where it doesn't matter which individual results end up as heads, only that 10+ of them do. And again unlike infinite shuffling, each individual action of flipping the coin does have a potential impact on the board state, that impact being adding another chance counter.


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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-18 6:23 am 

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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-19 11:45 am 
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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
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 Post subject: Re: Theoretical Probability as Win Condition
AgePosted: 2019-Jan-20 9:51 am 
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