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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jun-12 2:02 am 
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Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Seattle
pi wrote:
Basically, yes, though the other factors are relevant too ;).

I write articles for quietspeculation.com and I'm admin on their forum :roll:.


Neat, I always see QS articles I want to read but I'm only interested in the speculation side at an intellectual level so I can't justify a subscription.


Do you think the prices on some silly Legends cards will stay inflated? (All Hallow's Eve, Island of Wak-Wak, etc)

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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jun-12 2:44 am 

Joined: 2012-Oct-09 1:35 am
Age: Elder Dragon
Location: Stoke-On-Trent, England, UK
The cards at the start of the post are used in Coco Counters, the current tier 1 combo deck getting infinite mana turn 3 and 4 consistently. Bauble and street wraith both in Deaths Shadow aggro which has 2 different lists Tier one. And lava spike is used in burn, another tier one aggro deck. Melira was similarly expensive due to the coco deck and also stopping infect as a thing.

If you want to offload the devoted druid I would do it now, its far too good at ignoring all others and comboing at instant speed turn 3 so i think the druid will and should get a ban. Returning the deck to its slightly more fair Tier 1 version it was previously.

Can't see the burn or deaths shadow decks getting anything banned though, so sell sell sell haha. Sorry I am late to the party haha

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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jun-12 4:04 am 

Joined: 2009-Apr-21 3:38 pm
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Location: Palm Springs Area, CA
I probably should sell them.

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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jun-13 10:21 pm 
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scatteredsun wrote:
pi wrote:
Basically, yes, though the other factors are relevant too ;).

I write articles for quietspeculation.com and I'm admin on their forum :roll:.


Neat, I always see QS articles I want to read but I'm only interested in the speculation side at an intellectual level so I can't justify a subscription.

Do you think the prices on some silly Legends cards will stay inflated? (All Hallow's Eve, Island of Wak-Wak, etc)

You may want to look into their 111% guarantee, which gives you the opportunity to try it out. We also occassionally make insider articles free because of their topic. For example a while ago I wrote about sharking and we felt those articles could benefit the whole Magic community so we made them free.

I'm sure Island of Wak-Waks from Legends will remain extremely valuable ;). Joking aside, yes. Legends is a very large set. It had a pretty decent print run, but the number of copies printed per rare is actually very low: 19.500. Of course this doesn't include the Italian print run, but Italian tends to be very unpopular in any case. There simply aren't enough of these cards around to significantly increase supply at any given time. On the other hand Old School demand created additional interest in these cards and collectors like to complete old sets that are actually a bit of a challenge (and at such print run numbers you don't need all that many collectors, not saying collectors is a common thing). Basically, over a long time frame I only see such cards going up as more and more players can afford expensive cards, though there may be some volatility in the short term.

Mr Degradation wrote:
So, I'm sortof ambiguous about this. Modern has certainly driven the prices of EDH staples harder than I would have liked, but the backend of that is that Vintage and Legacy staples have become more accessible as Modern has usurped the other Eternal-formats. On one hand, I'm really happy to pay $20 for powerhouse singles like Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite- and consider the Khans reprinting of the 5 Onslaught fetches a stroke of brilliance on WotC's part.


Are you attributing this to Modern because cards sometimes see play there? It would make much more sense to me that increased EDH play, which happened around the same time, and the increased player base, which happened after Elesh Norn's orginal printing, have a lot more to do with it.

Mr Degradation wrote:
But, on the other- many safe-to-reprint in casual oriented sets and Standard sets simply don't get enough frequent saturation. I should be excited that Academy Ruins is a card that I picked up for $4, and has had it's trade value spike over the last couple years, but instead I find myself more or less frustrated that it's no longer just a card that I can comfortably give to other members of my playgroups to enhance our gaming experiences. While the secondary market structure fundamentally benefits us as players, Wizards is particularly gunshy about stepping on collector toes, which has ultimately become a continuing force in making accessibility issues.


Other than in the Reserved List context I doubt collectors are on Wizards' mind much when it comes to these questions. Selling product is. Reprints are only good for selling a product if they are flashy / expensive reprints. If Wizards reprints more often it gets in the way of new cards and excitement for reprints dwindles as they become more common. In addition, a card may look safe to reprint, but it may not be a good fit, either themetically (Academy Ruins being a good example becaude not every setting has a Tolarian Academy that it's the ruins of) or because of what the set tries to do (few Artifacts). Card availability is always going to be an issue because Wizards just can't find the room to reprint everything that needs it.

Mr Degradation wrote:
This is to say, that $20+ collectible pieces aren't bad for EDH, and certainly aren't bad for Magic on the whole- but accessibility issues to certain types of cards (looking at you Maelstrom Pulse and Verdant Catacombs) are a very real problem. Neither of these points of view are mutually exclusive, and while I have faith in Wizards looking to find creative solutions, we do know that sometimes the financiers of the game have to be offered up to the altar, collections have to be devalued, and rightly so, collectors will try to strongarm Wizards if they can, or us, the players if they feel compelled to. But if we all work in our interests, and split the difference- things just work out (like the Khans fetchlands "fiasco")


Believe me, this is not going to hit financiers. Those who know what they are doing have the agility to respond to changes much quicker than players and collectors do. For example, with the spoiling of dragons for C17: did you pick up cool dragon stuff that seems unlikely to be included as reprint (foils), while selling those that seem likely to be reprinted? I can guarantee that financiers are already doing that.

I do believe that Wizards is try to eliviate the problem you are referring to. Masterpieces are part of that. Not those reprints themselves, which barely do anything, but the downward preasure they applied on the rest of the cards from their sets (a boosterbox has an expected value, which for in print sets is always similar, add some expensive cards and that average goes up, more people open because of the better average and prices come down again to the normal average, pushing down these very rare cards a bit, but other cards from the same set much more). Additionally Wizard's reprints a lot between the new Core sets, Master sets,lots of supplemental product, etc. However, the cards that are always going to stand out are those that have not yet had their turn. Even if they reprinted Catacombs and Pulse today you'd just add some other cards to your wishlist tomorrow. Instead Wizards is taking a more structural approach and experiments with long term solutions, such as going back to Core sets, Masterpieces, more precons, Master sets, etc. Short term this never gets you all the cards you want, but long term this gradually alleviates the problem.

Of course they could also just do another Chronicles, but that would be an absolutely terrible idea.

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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jun-14 2:25 am 
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I didn't play during Urza's sets and I never got the tie between Academy Ruins and Tolerian Academy until you just pointed it out :facepalm:

I should read those stories.

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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jun-14 3:59 am 
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You're welcome! I never read them either, but I remember reading it in Time Spiral (preview?) articles.

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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jun-14 5:24 am 
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pi wrote:
In addition, a card may look safe to reprint, but it may not be a good fit, either themetically (Academy Ruins being a good example becaude not every setting has a Tolarian Academy that it's the ruins of) or because of what the set tries to do (few Artifacts).


That's why we're going to get core sets again. I think magic 2010 saved this game, and I always loved core sets anyway. So, happy me.

pi wrote:
Of course they could also just do another Chronicles, but that would be an absolutely terrible idea.


Aren't the masters series basically Chronicles with a lower card run? Wizards will screw that up eventually...

scatteredsun wrote:
I didn't play during Urza's sets and I never got the tie between Academy Ruins and Tolerian Academy until you just pointed it out :facepalm:

I should read those stories.


:shock:

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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jun-14 5:43 am 

Joined: 2014-Sep-13 7:28 am
Age: Elder Dragon
I believe [card]Tolaria West]] to be the rebuilt Academy :)

Time Spiral, Planar Chaos, and Future Sight were incredible times for me as a player, and i read the trilogy of corresponding books some years ago and it was another great experience all around.

Shabbaman wrote:
pi wrote:
In addition, a card may look safe to reprint, but it may not be a good fit, either themetically (Academy Ruins being a good example becaude not every setting has a Tolarian Academy that it's the ruins of) or because of what the set tries to do (few Artifacts).


That's why we're going to get core sets again.

It will help, and it gives them more time to create new worlds. A minor problem still exists, in that they can't reprint cards into core sets that are stupid for standard, or for modern if not already legal (Swords? Brainstorm?)


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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jun-15 1:01 am 
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Shabbaman wrote:
pi wrote:
Of course they could also just do another Chronicles, but that would be an absolutely terrible idea.


Aren't the masters series basically Chronicles with a lower card run? Wizards will screw that up eventually...


Actually probably the quantity is above Chronicles: we have a much larger playerbase now. That said, Wizards is being far more careful with picking what they reprint, availability and affordability. There are definite differences between Chronicles and Master sets, though if they ever get printed at normal set price and availability we may have another Chronicles on our hands.

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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jul-03 12:40 pm 
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Spectrar Ghost wrote:
lumination wrote:
Most recent discovery for me was Lava Spike.


$5 for a bad Bolt? Is there an arcane deck in modern I don't know about?


Lava Spke is a 4 of in Legacy Burn and Modern Burn. It also sees corner play in Duel Commander Zurgo builds. And yeah, that Bauble at $45...sigh. At least Inquisiton of Kozilek went down a bit!

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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jul-17 9:26 pm 

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It's hard to predict which ones are going to skyrocket in price.


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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jul-20 12:07 am 
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Some of us try though ;).

If it has a single printing in an unpopular set with lots of play it's bound to grow in price. The risk though is that it gets reprinted and crashes. I rarely speculate, preferring arbitrage instead, but I know a lot of people who do and it's quite feasible to make profits that way if you know what you're doing. As an amateur on that field I correctly predicted the Memory Jar and Rhox Faithmender rises, while I am waiting for Winding Canyons to really make a jump (I had about 35 copies each, have now moved my Faithmenders (fearing a reprint, I prefer Reserved List cards)).

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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jul-23 1:58 am 
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It's so lame though, I clearly recall going through dollar bins and picking up mind's eye, phyrexian altar, cheap oblivion stones when I first started playing EDH. I knew the cards were great for the format, but you take what you need and leave something left for the other players. As a player you should want other players to be able to optimize their decks to optimize the fun in your games. I want to win because my strategy/skill/luck was better not because I have more money than another player.

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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jul-24 1:05 am 
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You should mostly blame Wizards for that: they don't add to the supply and thereby demand can push the price up. Even if nobody was playing the market these cards' prices rise, though possibly not as quickly. I say mostly because yes price manipulation does happen and not everybody into MTG Finance is honorable. On the other hand, without it many would not have access to certain cards, nor would you have as good an out for cards you want to get rid of. It's unfortunately an unavoidable reality of Magic being a TCG.

I'm with you in that money shouldn't be a factor, however, it's the nature of the beast. I personally like to play with unmodified precons so that money is not why I win.

I realize that I've hoarded some cards, more than my fair share. I saw an opportunity and went for it. Usually I keep it small and just get cards for my collection, maybe an extra playset. I also take the risk. If Rhox Faithmender had been reprinted last year I likely would've lost money on them. I also hoard Elvish Archers, simply because I like to collect them, is that wrong too? (Admittedly it was nice to see my older copies rise due to Old School demand, but they're not going to be traded or sold so it doesn't matter). I can see why people would be against speculation, though I feel you're blaming the wrong group if you are, as Wizards enables this behaviour by not reprinting cards that are in high demand (though it makes sense that they don't: they can only do so many reprints in a year). Or you could blame other players for wanting to play EDH of course, the playerbase of the format has grown a lot since those cards were found in dollar bins.

Trading in cards is an aspect I really like about this hobby, others like the storyline, art or competitive play, which have never interested me. Without it I wouldn't enjoy the game as much, perhaps I'd even have left it at some point. It's perfectly fine with me if you consider that lame, I'll enjoy it regardless, just trying to give a little insight.

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 Post subject: Re: Card Prices
AgePosted: 2017-Jul-25 6:44 am 
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You can't entirely lay the blame on Wizards for the rising cost of cards. Yes, the Reserved List and a reprint policy exist, but that grew out of player outcry after Chronicles and to a lesser extent foil Phyrexian Negator in the Coalition v. Phyrexia duel deck. For better or for worse (I think worse, especially in terms of Legacy) Wizards caved to this very vocal minority (even the dreaded Star City Games hs gone on record as supporting the abolishment of the Reserved List) so as to protect a perceived ibvestment. I don't expect to be able to have access to every card on the cheap, but there is a happy medium between the Reserved List and reprinting a card until it is worthless. I realize that the discussion at hand is not aimed entirely at RL cards, but the list contributes to speculation and buy-outs, which do nothing positive for the health of the game.

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